9.39 THE POLITICAL SCENE IN
Public Record Office
REF: DO 196/319
THE POLITICAL SCENE
You are very much in touch with East Pakistan
affairs. Copies of my last two fortnightly summaries attached for convenience
of reference. The question of the day - is the autonomy movement going to flare
up, die out, or smoulder? There are many component factors. The Presidential
excesses of a few weeks ago still rankle. Intellectual circles, e.g. the
University faculty, talk politics freely and have a marked tendency to resent
the degree of Presidential control and the absence of any real form of
consultation of the governed. It is exemplified for them in the continued
presence of Dr. Ghani who is we judge now thoroughly hated in the University.
(His appeal to the Supreme Court on the contempt case, to be heard in Dacca
shortly, is awaited with gleeful interest). The Bengali language troubles have
not recurred, but are only latent (the students, for once, seem to be doing
some actual work). There is cynical disbelief that anyone will really do
anything about the Hamoodur Rahman report. As regards India, the mood is one of
bewilderment - what is the Government's postTashkent policy, and when are the
things that concern East Pakistan, like communications and trade and use of
waters, going to be discussed? With this is coupled increasing awareness
amongst informed businessmen that if large-scale aid does not come with 3/4
months, business activity is really going to be affected. It generates
resentment that control of policy on these issues rests elsewhere than in East
Pakistan, and that no one can influence it. The opposition press is writing
freely and quite well about the basic discontents of East Pakistan, and has -
so far - not apparently been subjected to Government pressure. (But it fears
the possible effect of a Government Advertising Corporation).
2. Against this background recent developments in
the parties are as follows:
E.P.M.L.
Having a spasm of activity following the President's
visit, and yet another enrolment campaign. No evidence that this is other than
superficial.
Awami League
It is almost certainly building up its popular
support following the Government's harassment of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.
N.D.F.
Has re-established its constitution, with Central
and Provincial committees, no doubt in an attempt to make itself look like a
national party.
Has passed a very strong resolution demanding
"transfer of power to the people". It includes all the usual points
(as enumerated by the E.P.A.L!) about constitutional change, autonomy, federal
system, the two-economy theory, defence self-sufficiency, independent foreign
policy, end of the emergency etc., and two interesting ones - need for
re-examination of "One Unit" in West Pakistan (also a move towards
national status) and an economy giving access to the "economic advantages
of socialism".
N.A.P.
Still divided, but now firmly on the "autonomy
bandwagon", with anti-imperialism etc. thrown in for good measure.
Others
No change -- but no one denies the need for
autonomy.
3. There is no more sign than there ever of the
formation of a real opposition political grouping.
4. There is a new potential factor in the situation
- food and prices. Drought has caused real damage; a poor boro crop and late
sowings of the aus crop (cash crops (chiefly jute) will also be much affected).
As a result of this and of decreasing imports, prices of essential commodities
are rising. East Pakistan's agriculture always catches up on itself, but it may
not be able to do so before August (the aus harvest) and the Government may be
very hard put to it to maintain food supplies until then, and may ultimately
find it even harder to control prices.
Outlook
5. Our American colleagues believe that trouble is
on the way. They tell us that the pressures building up behind Sheikh Mujibur
Rahman will enable him to call for and get civil disturbance. (They expect to
come under attack themselves for promoting Bengali separatism). They tell us of
contacts being made with them by all sorts of groups and individuals, including
M.N.As and M.P.As who say that "Mujib is the man, and we are all waiting
for the moment to change sides."
6. We remain sceptical. There is, unquestionably,
profound and growing intellectual discontent - but it lacks a focus and it is
confined to a tiny minority. There is bewilderment over foreign policy here,
and a real wish for some coherence in
Source: The British
Papers – Secret and Confidential India.Pakistan.Bangladesh
Documents 1958-1969,