Foreign Relations, 1969-1976, Volume E-7, South Asia, 1969-1972
Released by the Office of the Historian
May 25, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR MR. HENRY A. KISSINGER
THE WHITE HOUSE
Subject: Contingency Study for Indo-Pakistan Hostilities
There is attached a draft contingency paper on the
prospects for Indo-Pakistan hostilities. I would appreciate your distributing
this paper to members of the Washington Special Action Group for consideration
at its meeting on Wednesday May 26.
Theodore L. Eliot, Jr.
Executive Secretary
Attachment:
Contingency Study for Indo-Pakistani Hostilities
CONTINGENCY STUDY FOR INDO-PAKISTANI HOSTILITIES
I. Introduction
The civil war in East Pakistan has now continued for two months. The
Pakistan Army has advanced to the Indian borders and has control over all of
the major population centers in East Pakistan. Despite this apparent military success, the prospects
for political and military stability are poor and the danger that the situation
will escalate into an international conflict is growing. Thus the situation is
moving from a level at which our interests were only secondarily involved to
one that could pose a direct threat to the bases of U. S. policy in South Asia. This paper assesses the
contingencies under which an escalation might take place and suggests steps
which the US should take either to prevent
escalation or to terminate it once war has broken out.
II. Danger Signals
In the last ten days we have received clandestine reports
of military movements by Indian forces near the East and West Pakistan borders, and signs of Indian
contingency planning for war. The Indian Government has reinforced Border
Security Force (BSF) units and has moved regular Indian Army units to within
three kilometers of the border. Tanks have been seen moving to forward
cantonments in the Punjab.
These developments reflect the growing Indian concern at the flood of Hindu
refugees pouring out of East Pakistan at a rate in excess of 100,000 per day. Over 3.4 million have crossed into
India. The Indian Government faces strong public and
Parliamentary pressure to stop the refugee inflow and to support the Bengalis.
The GOI fears that if there is not a cessation of the refugee flaw, the states
of Eastern
India could
be inundated under as many as 8 million refugees. In Indian eyes this would
pose an intolerable burden on the social and economic structure of the area.
In addition to its concern about the refugee problem, the
GOI has been taking steps to support the Bengali struggle for independence in
the face of the military successes of the Pakistan Army. The BSF has
established camps at which 10,000 Bengalis are reportedly receiving training in
guerrilla and sabotage tactics. Limited quantities of arms and ammunition
continue to be provided to the Bengali separatists and some Indian forces have
infiltrated into East Bengal to provide assistance and training to the separatists. There have been
several border incidents involving Indian and Pakistani border units and at
least one violation of Indian air space by Pakistani aircraft.
While India probably still does not seek a war
with Pakistan, it may come to believe that its national interest
requires a preemptive strike against Pakistan. The Pakistanis, for their part,
probably believe that it is only Indian political and military support that
will keep the insurgency alive. They may therefore decide to strike directly
against guerrilla training camps within India in order to relieve the pressure.
Over the longer term there is also the danger that the Pakistanis will provoke
a conflict in order to distract international attention than the internal
situation in East Pakistan and in order to convince the East Pakistani people
that there is a threat from India sufficiently great to justify the continued
unity of Pakistan and the West Pakistani military presence in the East.
There are still strong negative factors Working against escalation. Both Governments, with the
experience of 1965 in mind, are aware that a decisive victory cannot be won and
the costs of war are extremely high. On the Indian side, there is added a fear
of China and the recognition that an Indo-Pakistani conflict
could result in direct Chinese involvement. Given the highly emotional context
in which decisions are being made in India and Pakistan, however, one cannot assume that
rational arguments militating against escalation will overrule the more
immediate needs to respond to specific incidents or provocations.
III. Scenarios for Escalation
There are a variety of circumstances in which escalation
might take place:
(1) The Indians, faced with something approaching
genocide of the Hindus in East Pakistan and inundated with an unmanageable Hindu refugee inflow,
might decide to move in to stop the killing, end this refugee flow and
establish a moderate Awami League Government in Dacca.
(2) The Pakistanis might take action against BSF
guerrilla/ training camps in India or might fire upon Indian border
units while pursuing retreating Bengali separatist infiltrators.
(3) Other types of border incidents might in themselves provoke escalation. For example, the Indians
might shoot down a Pakistani aircraft violating Indian air space.
(4) The Pakistanis might engage in a diversionary
maneuver in Kashmir to distract Indian and world
attention from the Bengal
situation. In extremis the Pakistanis might attack India in the Punjab.
(5) The GOI in the Parliamentary session beginning May 24
will come under increased pressure to recognize the Bangla Desh Government.
Should it do so, a break in relations with Islamabad would probably result. An Indian
decision to recognize Bangla Desh would also probably be followed by more overt
Indian support for the separatists, which in turn would increase the likelihood
of an open conflict.
Of these scenarios the one most likely to lead to escalation
at this time is the one deriving from the refugee problem and its impact in India. However, if an effective insurgency
gains momentum as a result of Indian involvement, the Pakistanis also will come
under increasing pressure to take action against India. In both cases, as long as there is
no fundamental solution to the underlying political problem, the danger of war
will remain.
IV. Secondary Escalation
Escalation would in the first instance involve only a
direct confrontation between India and Pakistan. However, we have learned from
intelligence sources that China may have given a conditional promise
to assist Pakistan in the event hostilities break out
with India. The Chinese may have also given assurances that they
will initiate military action "along the Tibetan border" if Indian
troops deliberately cross the Pakistani frontier in force. Should the Chinese
become directly involved, it is likely that the Soviet Union will openly support India and will presumably provide such
military assistance as is required.
V. Steps to Prevent Escalation
Although US influence in India and Pakistan is limited in the present
circumstances, there are various actions which we might take to promote our
interest in preventing the crisis from escalating. As indicated above, the
dangers of escalation will remain as long as there is no resolution of the
basic political issues in East Pakistan. If a peaceful accommodation between the East and West
can be achieved resting on genuine popular support in East Pakistan, there is little doubt that the
refugee flow would stop and that India would accept the political
accommodation and back away from its support for any residual Bengali
separatist movement. In view of the bloodshed of recent weeks, a political
accommodation will be extremely difficult to achieve, but it is in our interest
.to accelerate efforts to achieve it. We might therefore:
--Continue to stress to the Government of Pakistan the
urgent need for political accommodation and indicate that our ability to assist
Pakistan depends on progress toward such an accommodation.
--Consider a more active use of the leverage of our military and economic
assistance programs to induce Pakistan to begin political negotiations with
the Bengalis. (The merits of this was discussed in the
SRG paper reassessing US Relations with Pakistan.)
--Continue to stress in both Islamabad and New Delhi the importance of restraint and our
hope that neither side will over-react to border incidents or provocations.
Warn the Indians of the dangers of Chinese intervention in the event of
escalation, and tell them that they cannot automatically count on our support
in this event.
--Continue to emphasize a) to the Indians our willingness to assist them in
alleviating the burdens created by the refugee flaw, particularly by providing
increased US financial assistance, and b) to the Pakistanis the importance of
creating conditions in which the refugee flaw will stop and be reversed.
--Emphasize to the Indians the desirability of conducting India's relations with representatives of East Bengal so as to minimize tensions.
with Islamabad. As long as the Indians withhold
recognition of Bangla Desh, they are less likely to go beyond the modest levels
of military support that they are now providing.
--Consider approaching the Chinese to urge them to continue to exercise
restraint in the present situation. It might be possible to persuade the
British, the Canadians, or the French to express the need for restraint through
their missions in Peking.
--Confidentially discuss with the USSR the steps which we might take to
prevent the outbreak of war.
--Support and encourage third country offers of assistance as mediators. (The
Swiss are already engaged in facilitating the repatriation of Indian and
Pakistani diplomats from Calcutta and Dacca.) Additional countries
at a later stage might take on a mediatory role. Canada, with good relations in
Islamabad, Delhi and Peking, might be encouraged to do so.
--Consider encouraging the UN Secretary General to adopt .a more open political
role, going beyond his present efforts to achieve an international relief
effort, perhaps including a public appeal for a political settlement or an
offer to travel to the area to seek the views of South Asian leaders.
--Consider supporting the Indian proposal for a UN Security Council meeting to
consider the international security aspects of the refugee. problem.
--Consider using our economic leverage with India to achieve restraint.
VI. Actions in the Event of Escalation
Should the crisis escalate into an open war between India and Pakistan, we will be faced as in 1965 with
many difficult decisions. The situation will be significantly more complex than
in 1965 since it is possible that the conflict will be joined on both India's eastern and western borders and
will involve the Chinese and the Soviets to some degree or other. Except in the
unlikely event of a major Chinese attack against India, no US military commitment would be
involved. In the event of escalation, we will need to act swiftly to halt the
conflict. We should be prepared to take the following actions:
--Immediately call the United Nations Security Council into session and
strongly support any UN action designed to terminate hostilities.
--Formally and publicly suspend all military programs to India and Pakistan. .
--Immediately send Presidential messages to President Yahya and Prime Minister
Gandhi calling for an end to hostilities.
--Coordinate closely with the USSR and the UK on steps which we might take jointly
with the GOP and the GOI.
--Depending upon the circumstances in which the fighting had broken out,
consider suspending our economic assistance to Pakistan and/or India until peace is restored.
--If there is an unprovoked/ Chinese attack on India in support of Pakistan going beyond border incidents:
(a) consider whether and what
kinds of military assistance
to India could be resumed.
(b) initiate consultations with
the Indians as provided in the 1964 Air Defense Agreement. -- Withdraw the four
C-130s which may be in the area of conflict
carrying out a refugee airlift.