Department of State

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20520

 

September 16, 1971

 

 

MEMORANDUM FOR MR. HENRY A. KISSINGER
THE WHITE HOUSE

 

Subject: Situation Report: India/Pakistan

 

 

Indo-US Relations

 

Under Secretary Irwin and Aid Deputy Administrator Williams stressed to Indian Ambassador Jha on September 13 the importance of India and the US working together toward a common goal of averting famine in East Pakistan. The Under Secretary expressed the hope that the GOI would publicly indicate its support for a neutral UN relief effort. He also asked the GOI to persuade the Bangla Desh Government to support the UN relief effort on Bangla Desh Radio and to avoid guerrilla activities aimed at relief personnel. The Under Secretary also raised with Jha the need for some kind of verification system to determine the number of refugees and their needs. Jha replied that the GOI did not wish to see starvation in East Pakistan, and suggested that the USG and other countries approach Bangla Desh representatives on the subject of the security of the relief effort. Jha reacted negatively to the verification proposal, which he said appeared to impugn the veracity of the GOI.

 

India has lifted its restriction on overflights of the India-West Pakistan border by foreign military aircraft. The temporary restriction was apparently aimed at the United States and in retaliation for the September 3 deviation of the New Delhi air attache aircraft from the approved route when returning from Islamabad.

 

India, Pakistan and the Soviet Union

 

The Pakistan Foreign Secretary Sultan Khan has returned from his visit to Moscow where he sought clarification of the Indo-Soviet Treaty. According to a reliable report, the Soviets issued a stern warning to the Pakistanis against any kind of hostilities or use of arms, while insisting they desired continued good relations with Pakistan. The Soviets did not propose a solution to the present Indo-Pakistan crisis to the relief of the Pakistanis who would find a Tashkent-type effort for a settlement unacceptable.

 

Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi will visit Moscow September 27 to 29. A Moscow stop had been mentioned in connection with Mrs. Gandhi's official visits to the US and Europe in October/November, but this has apparently now become a

separate, earlier trip.

 

Embassy Moscow has cautioned that Soviet South Asian policy may be affected by possible Soviet willingness to tolerate or even incur risks to set back or frustrate the trend toward better Sino-US relations. Increased tension between India and Pakistan, or the outbreak of hostilities between them, could conceivably serve this purpose, thus creating a potential contradiction between the traditional Soviet interest in controlling Indo-Pakistan tension and new uses to which such tension might be put.

 

Situation in Pakistan

 

In East Pakistan the new Governor A.M. Malik has been on tour of the province in an apparent effort to persuade the people that his appointment marks the beginning of a new regime. In the West, Peoples' Party Chairman Bhutto has taken a more strident tone in his demand for a transfer of power to elected representatives and has met again with President Yahya, presumably to press these demands.

President Yahya departed September 13 to Tehran for meetings with the Shah. There has been some speculation that the meetings will involve discussion of a negotiated political accommodation in East Pakistan, but there has been no verification.

 

Developments in the Bangla Desh Movement

 

According to press reports, a consultative committee or "National Liberation Front" has been formed in Calcutta by the Awami League and representatives of pro-Soviet Communist and other leftist parties from East Pakistan. The committee includes the Bangla Desh cabinet and Acting President, as well as representatives from the other parties, but does not include the pro-Chinese Toaha group, which has some independent guerrilla capability in East Pakistan. The Consulate General in Calcutta has reported considerable speculation that the Front was formed at the instance of the Soviets and that the Indians pushed it as the price for Soviet acquiescence in Indian recognition of Bangla Desh. We have drawn the reports of the formation of the Front to the attention of the Indian Ambassador here and have asked for a GOI assessment. Bangla Desh "Foreign Minister" Mushtaq Ahmad and another Bangla Desh "Minister" made separate speeches last week calling for complete independence and ruling out negotiated accommodation.

It is now expected that the Bangla Desh Government will attempt to send a delegation to the United Nations General Assembly, possibly headed by the Bangla Desh "Foreign Minister."

 

Refugee Relief

 

The State Department and AID have decided that it would be preferable to seek additional funds for refugee relief under the appropriation for South Asian

humanitarian assistance within the Foreign Assistance Act, rather than in the form of a special appropriation under the Refugee and Migration Act. We will, therefore, ask that the $100 million the House included in the Foreign Assistance Act for South Asian relief be increased, probably to $250 million, to include additional funds for refugee relief. By seeking funds in a single appropriation we will get greater flexibility to shift money from one purpose to the other depending on the situation. Food aid would be additional.

Governmental and private international contributions for refugee relief totaled $168 million as of September 13, as against an estimated cost of $830 million for 8 million refugees up to June 30, 1972. Our share of the international contributions is $70.5 million, plus $3.5 million from US voluntary agencies. As far as we know, the Soviet Union still has contributed only the $11 million in rice and smallpox vaccine announced several months ago, plus the Soviet airlift, the value of which we do not know. The British government has committed $7.9 million and is planning a further contribution of $12 million. British voluntary agencies have contributed $3.4 million. Other major contributors include Japan, $6.4 million; Germany, $4.8 million; Sweden, $5 million; and the Dutch refugee committee (private), $6 million.

 

The latest official GOI report on refugees places the total at 8.463 million as of September 13. This indicates that the daily flow in the preceding two-week period dropped to 14,000 from about 33,000 during the last week of August. It should be noted, however, that both the flow figures and the total figures are subject to amendment when reporting discrepancies are reconciled.

 

East Pakistan Relief

 

On September 10 the U.S. signed a Title I PL 480 agreement authorizing a grant to Pakistan of 500,000 tons of wheat and 25,000 tons of edible oil, together worth $40.3 million. Shipment will be made in FY 1972 as needed as part of the overall US program of relief aid to East Pakistan, which to date has reached a value of over $90 million.

 

Theodore L. Eliot, Jr.

Executive Secretary

 

 

NEA/INC: RGSmith/emg 9/15/71

Clearances: NEA/PAF - Mr. Laingen

NEA/INC - Mr. Schneider

S/R - Mr. Wiesner

AID-NESA - Mr. Rees

NEA - Mr. Van Hollen

NEA - Mr. Sisco

H - Miss Folger

U - Mr. Williams.

 

 

 

Source: The American Papers - Secret and Confidential India. Pakistan. Bangladesh Documents 1965- 1973, The University

                 Press Limited, p. 665-667.