Department of State

 

INTELLIGENCE NOTE

BUREAU OF INTELLIGENCE AND RESEARCH

 

September 27, 1971

 

 

Pakistan : In Search Of Assurance

 

Although Pakistan President Yahya is scheduled to make a state visit to Iran in October, on September 14-during a critical period in Pakistani affairs-he found cause to make a sudden 24-hour trip to Tehran. His objective remains obscure. According to Pakistani pronouncements, he was concerned with peace, especially the possibility of Iranian-sponsored peace talks between Pakistan and India. More compelling evidence indicates that his primary concern was war, particularly the assurance of Iranian support or intervention when and if war should break out. Even if he was seeking no more than a general assurance that Iran is Pakistan's understanding ally, indications are that he was disappointed.

 

According to official GOP announcements and news articles quoting "authoritative sources," Yahya went to Tehran in a final attempt to arrange a summit meeting between himself and Mrs. Gandhi in order to avert war. He allegedly appealed to the Shah to use "every influence" to arrange such a meeting, reminding the Iranian ruler that Pakistan had earlier proposed such a meeting but had been rebuffed by Mrs. Gandhi

 

It seems implausible, however, that Yahya went to Tehran solely to try to revive the idea of conciliatory meetings. While this subject may have come up in his talks with the Shah, Yahya's probable primary purpose was to seek reassurance of Iranian support. The kind of support requested is described variously in the reporting, but all sources agree that Yahya believed that war was imminent and asked the Shah for help. Both Foreign Service and clandestine reports suggest that he entered a specific request for Iranian military support in the event of an Indo-Pakistani war.

 

Most sources agree that the Shah's response was reserved. While he may have consented to provide some limited military materiel, he reportedly refused to commit Iran to military activity on Pakistan's side in a war with India and strongly urged Yahya to seek an end to the confrontation through peaceful means.

 

For Yahya the Shah's reported position of reserve comes at an awkward time. The Chinese Government, while still officially backing the GOP, has apparently become less wholehearted in its support and has failed to provide all the economic and military aid that Pakistan has requested. The USSR still professes friendship with Pakistan but is viewed with heightened suspicion in Islamabad since the signing of the Indo-Soviet treaty. The US Government, the Paks feel, cannot be depended upon because of the widespread disapproval of Pakistan's actions among the electorate and the Congress.

 

In these circumstances, the GOP may be feeling a sense of isolation. The result might be a decline in the Pakistanis' belligerency, for they are well aware of India's military superiority and had been relying on the moral and material support of their friends to even the balance.

INR/Near East and South Asia

Director : Curtis F. Jones

Analyst : David McGaffey

Ext.      : 21368

Released by :

 

 

 

Source: The American Papers - Secret and Confidential India. Pakistan. Bangladesh Documents 1965- 1973, The University

                Press Limited, p. 679-680.