Secret telegram
From: Amconsul Dacca
To: Secretary State Washington DC
1. Several of our recent reports have referred to
the assistance afforded Mukti Bahini (MB) activity inside EP by Indian shelling
and probing of the borders of the province. This pins regular Pak Army troops
to the borders and gives them plenty to think about while MB in interior have
to deal mainly with Razakars, police, and other para-military forces less
efficient than Army. At same time increasingly frequent combined Indian
Army-MB operations on border contribute to experience and strengthening of MB.
Given rate at which MB activity increasing inside
province and apparently Growing organization and self-confidence of these
forces, it begins to look as if India might achieve such possible major
objectives as pressure on Islamabad govt, weakening of Pakistan, or even
independent Bangla Desh by simply continuing its present activities without
escalating them into actual warfare. If this idea is indeed in mind of Indian
policy planners, it might explain provocative Indian tactics on border as well
as vaguely menacing noises Mrs. Gandhi and other high Indian officials
continue to make without necessarily assuming any real intention to go to war.
Spivack
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