Secret telegram

16 November 1971

From: Amembassy New Delhi

To: Secretary State Washington DC

 

Subj: Observers believe Mrs. Gandhi Trying Cool Political Temperature at Least Temporarily.

 

l. Summary: Reports of Primin's remarks to opposition leaders Nov 15 coincide with restrained tone she has adopted elsewhere since her return in discussing South Asia crisis. PreliAnary assessment of most local observers is that Mrs. Gandhi consciously attempting lower political temperature in this country for time being at least. End summary.

 

2. In addition to meeting, statements on South Asia crisis reported reftel with which Primin Indira Gandhi associated since her return, she also held meeting with parliamentary opposition leaders Nov 15, which covered in today's (Tues.) press. Almost all reports indicate Primin adopted same cautious, restrained posture as in meeting with Congress parliamentary party and in Lok Sabha statement. (Swatantra MP who talked with his party leader after meeting with Primin confirms accuracy of press reporting.) According to States­man, Primin broadly indicated following reasons for counseling pa­tience to her countrymen: (a) There some indication US may be ex­erting influence on GOP to move it toward realistic political accom­modation; (b) Mukti Bahini increasingly successful as it continues to step up efforts against Pak army; and (c) There has recently been no­ticeable drop in refugee influx into India. Other articles indicate Mrs. Gandhi expressed satisfaction at cessation of US arms sales to Paki­stan and said she was informed US would not approve third-country sales.

 

3. At sharp variance with many other reports recent days of Mrs. Gandhi's disinclination to indicate deadline for movement toward political solution in East Pakistan is respected C.S.Pandit's Indian Express (Nov 16) allegation that "knowledgeable sources" say COI

prepared give world powers maximum of two weeks to produce evi­dence of progress. (In contrast to his Nov 12 personal prediction of 5 weeks.) Though Pandit unavailable for amplification, other well­informed newsmen, including one from Express say two-week "deadline" being floated by some opposition leaders who desire more rapid progress toward independent Bangla Desh than now ap­parent and want to create climate conducive to their pressing Primin for firmer action few weeks hence if there no signs of political ac­commodation. Some opposition MP's who were at meeting with Mrs. Gandhi have denied to newsmen she hinted at deadline, saying that (as in Congress parliamentary party session) she gave impres­sion of wishing leave time question open. Several journalists also of opinion that Mrs. Gandhi has not set time limit to Indian patience.

 

4. First reactions among most GOI officials, parliamentarians, newsmen, and diplomats to Primin's private and public comments since her return to India Nov 13 can be summarized as follows: Primin telling Indian people and world that while she has no inten­tion of reducing pressure on Pakistan by withdrawing Indian troops from borders or reducing support to Mukti Bahini, GOI is prepared to wait for some unspecified period (many observers think period is only few weeks, but others think it could be longer) to see whether international community's efforts to get GOP open dialogue with Awami League successful before initiating more decisive action. Frequent comment from Indian and foreign observers is that Mrs. Gandhi remains, as before her trip, less hawkish than country as a whole, and that she apparently continues to work to avoid major Indo-Pak war. Her briefings to legislators and government associates past three days, coupled with remarks to press upon arrival Nov 13 and statement to parliament Nov 15 (New Delhi 17737) are being likened in tone and effect to her calming press conference remarks

Oct 19 and eve of departure speech to nation Oct 23. Hindu's G.K. Reddy perhaps best summed up general reaction to Mrs. Gandhi's performance past three days in comment to emboff Nov 15: "Mrs. Gandhi has clearly de-escalated political tension since her return, but there no indication she seeks defuse border situation. Nor is it in her or India's interests to do so."

 

5. It is rumored that opposition political parties wish debate in both houses of parliament at early date on Primin's Nov 15 statement re­porting on her trip abroad.

 

Stone

 

 

Source: Bangladesh Liberation War and the Nixon House 1971, Enayetur Rahim and Joyce L. Rahim, Pustaka Dhaka, p – 371 - 373